Quinn MacWatters has had an outstanding rookie season for the reloaded RBI Steaks.
You want playoff probabilities? We’ve got playoff probabilities.
Commissioner Emeritus Dan Rish really likes spreadsheets and has developed a whole-ass Monte Carlo simulator for the rest of the season. With the extremely scientific approach of “let’s ask the three dudes in the league office”, we’ve generated a dataset and now present our simulator’s outputs to you. Let the arguing commence!
Power Rankings After Week Ten
- Bilabial Stops (13-1)
Last Week: 1
Playoff Probability: 100%
Most Likely Seed: #1 (95%)
The Stops are taking almost all of July off, almost like an extremely long All-Star break. Completely new terrain could await when they return on 7/25 against the Mighty Knucks, but it’s hard to knock them down from the top spot short of a truly extraordinary performance.
2. West Coast Washout (9-3)
Last Week: 3
Playoff Probability: 100%
Most Likely Seed: #2 (62%)
The Commish is Dead, Long Live the Commish. Dan Rish came back to town fresh off his move to Pittsburgh and took care of business against the Mighty Knucks. In the absence of ace Karl Koch, the squad turned to Jeff Hanschmann for game two, hitting 80+ on the radar gun and muzzling the Knuck bats. Combined with their powerful performance at the plate, the Washout secured the sweep and will face fellow founding friends Chicken ‘n’ Wiffles next week.
3. Wiffle House (6-6)
Last Week: 7
Playoff Probability: 95%
Most Likely Seeds: #4 & #5 (36% each)
By taking traditional power 100% Real Juice to the cleaners on Sunday, Wiffle House announced their arrival, kicked in the door, and burned the motherfucker down. Quinn Thomas and Reed McFeely showed real promise on the mound while league-leading Liam McFeely led a lineup that was hot from top to bottom. With stifling defense and ferocious baserunning, this rookie team roared back to .500 and are a danger to everyone in their path.
4. RBI Steaks (8-2)
Last Week: 2
Playoff Probability: 100%
Most Likely Seed: #3 (46%)
Starting off a month of all nightcaps, the Steaks opened their July with a sweep of Wiffully Ignorant. Nick Winn continues stretching out on the mound after his year away, Jimmy Froio continues to junkball and slug his way to wins, and Quinn MacWatters is having an impressive rookie season at the dish. Next week’s test: Mr. Rogers, E-40, and the Sheryl Crows.
5. Sheryl Crows (6-4)
Last Week: 5
Playoff Probability: 61%
Most Likely Seed: #6 (30%)
Despite having what seems to be a full 25-man roster, the Crows were hit by a rash of midsummer outages and were only able to bring five to the field. But those five proved to be enough against a similarly shorthanded Chicken ‘n’ Wiffles, snagging a comfortable win in game one before mashing their way through game two. But hopefully they aren’t stuck with the MASH squad next week, as they’ll face a real test with playoff implications in the RBI Steaks.
6. Mighty Knucks (5-5)
Last Week: 4
Playoff Probability: 91%
Most Likely Seed: #5 (34%)
Brandon Wallach’s knuck danced like a maniac, but it wasn’t able to take the Knucks to the ball against West Coast Washout last week. Their lineup is still mashing from top to bottom, with Alex Hatch striking some absolute bombs, but the other side of the ball still needs improvement. They’ll get another bite at the apple next week against Wiffully Ignorant.
7. South Side Sliders (3-5)
Last Week: 8
Playoff Probability: 22%
Most Likely Seed: #6 (13%)
An enigma, within a fog, within a mystery, Scott Macgowan’s Sliders may not deserve this low of a ranking. They’ve shown decent talent on both sides of the ball, winning most of the games they should and playing close games as underdogs. They just need to play more games, period. Their July opens next week against the scorching Wiffle House.
8. 100% Real Juice (6-8)
Last Week: 6
Playoff Probability: 31%
Most Likely Seed: #6 (26%)
Running into a hype train is never fun, especially when it’s firing on all cylinders and gaining momentum. The Juice had the misfortune of hitting Wiffle House head on, with both Adam Brickett and Epo Olivares struggling to contain that killer lineup. Sand is slipping in the hourglass and their unbroken playoff streak is in jeopardy, but they have just enough time to right the ship with four games left against other contenders. They’ll take next week off and will face another bubble team out of the bye, the South Side Sliders.
9. Chicken'n'Wiffles (3-11)
Last Week: 9
Playoff Probability: 0%
With the Euro Cup final raging, the Chickens were down both their best hitter in Liam Munro, and their best fielder in Andy Siegel. While they were eventually able to get some warm bodies in the field, the squad was unable to take advantage of a weakened Sheryl Crows lineup. Life doesn’t get any easier next week against West Coast Washout, though the main contributors will return and there is potential intrigue in a Commissioners of Future Past pitching matchup.
10. Wiffully Ignorant (1-15)
Last Week: 10
Playoff Probability: 0%
Down both of their regular pitchers but still with five players, Wiffully Ignorant gutted through another Sunday. Matt Erickson stroked some bombs and Andy Fulton bravely took the mound, but it wasn’t enough against the RBI Steaks. The Wigs close their regular season next week against the Mighty Knucks, but a postseason invitational still awaits them -- keep practicing, and stay tuned!
